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Oscar Predictions 2011 – Part #2: Acting Awards and Best Films

by
February 24, 2011

This year it is heating up to be a battle for Best Picture, with The King’s Speech gaining a lot of recent momentum over the critical darling The Social Network.  I haven’t been able to catch any of the short films, as most of them are played at film festivals, so I won’t even try to pick a prediction there.  I know itunes is letting you rent some on the best animated and live action short nominees for the Oscars so I recommend you check those out.  They usually are really great.  That being said here are my predictions for the acting and film awards.

Best Documentary

Exit Through the Gift shop

Gasland

Inside Job

Restrepo

Waste Land

Most of the best documentary winners are decided by the precursor ACE editing awards, which Gift Shop won.  Gift shop also has the biggest buzz going into the Oscars because of its director, the notorious street artist Bansky.  Just the thought of Bansky possibly accepting the award has given the Academy Awards a stir.  I could also see Inside Job winning this because of its political relevance in the past year.

Best Foreign Film

Mexico – Biutiful

Greece – Dogtooth

Denmark – In a Better World

Canada – Incendies

Algeria – Outside the Law

A lot of people would predict that Biutiful would win, but this category is always up for grabs.  Remember when Pan’s Labyrinth was considered a lock for this – then didn’t win?  In a Better World did win a Golden Globe and I’m predicting it will win the Oscar as well.  But look for a surprise in this category.

Best Animated Feature

How to Train Your Dragon

Illusionsit

Toy Story 3

I loved How to Train Your Dragon but Toy Story 3 was incredible.  It also has a best picture nomination so that definitely gives it the edge here.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech

Melissa Leo – The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit

Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

I’m going with an upset pick here, over the frontrunner Melissa Leo.  Haile Steinfeld was the main actress in True Grit, yet somehow she got nominated in this category.  Was it to increase her chances of winning?  A most definite yes and I think the move will pay off.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Fighter

John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone

Jeremy Renner – The Town

Mark Ruffalo – The Kids are All Right

Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Bale was incredible in the Fighter and it seems like this award is all but a lock for him.  Only person to upset him could be Geoffrey Rush.

Best Actress

Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right

Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone

Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

A lot of indie movie actresses nominated here, but Natalie Portman’s role in Black Swan has garnered the most buzz.  She had to learn ballet in countless hours of training and played a duel personality in the psychological thriller Black Swan.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem – Biutiful

Jeff Bridges  – True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network

Colin Firth – The King’s Speech

James Franco – 127 Hours

A great lineup this year, especially over last year’s nominations which snubbed a lot of great performances.  This is Colin Firth’s to lose, and I feel there is no way he is going to lose.  It’s interesting to see Jeff Bridges nominated for John Wayne’s Oscar winning role many years back.  Have two different actors each won an Oscar for the same role?  Would be a great trivia question.

Best Picture

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

127 Hours

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

This is really going going to come down to who is voting for the best picture award.  The Social Network had won almost every critic’s choice awards leading up to the Guild awards, and the King’s Speech swept the Guild Awards (excluding the WGA’s which they couldn’t be nominated for).  That recent surge in award’s wins has led me to believe that the King’s Speech is now the frontrunner to win.  However, The Social Network still has a very good chance considering how many critic’s named it their favorite film of the year.  Only time will tell who wins – but for now I’m going with the King’s Speech.



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